A 'Tepper Rally' occurs today with the SPX moving up through the 1636 resistance and into the 1640's. The SPX prints a new intraday all-time high at 1647.71 and as shown on the 30-minute chart likely wants to explore this high again today. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets ahead. The dollar/yen is at 102 again. The euro/dollar and dollar basket are flat so the weaker yen helps provide equity lift. The 10-year Treasury yield is 1.92% remaining tame and not running higher with equities. Copper is takin' the pipe today but equities remain unaffected by weaker commodities. Good news is good news and bad news is good news (since more QE will occur).
Of great interest is volatility jumping higher today; the VIX currently printing 13.11 with a HOD at 13.21. The VIX 50-day MA is 13.38. The bull-bear line in the sand to watch for the VIX is 13.20 (down from the 13.25 mentioned this morning). So, with both the VIX and SPX up, one of them is wrong. TRIN is 0.74 so say no more, the bulls have the day in hand and the long streak of consecutive days of very low TRIN numbers continues. The bulls are running and continuing the streak of up Tuesday's. SPX support below is 1646, 1645.50, 1642, 1640, 1639, 1634-1636, 1626, 1618, 1614 and 1597-1598. Here's the new all-time high print again, now at 1648.63.
Note Added 1:45 PM: TRIN 0.69 with LOD at 0.59. VIX drops from the 13.11 back under 13, now at 12.79. The 10-year yield moves up to 1.96%. The dollar/yen is printing new highs now well above 102 at 102.38. The weaker yen, higher yields, lower volatility and lower TRIN all reinforce the Tepper Rally today. The SPX prints another new all-time high at 1649.71 at 12:20 PM. Today is a demoralizing rally for the shorts. Keystone's call has been wrong on a stronger pull back in equities over the last three months, so far. The individual peaks and sell offs have been easy enough to call with the negative divergence but the markets are not permitted to fully correct with all the central banker easing in place. Keybot the Quant remains long. Today's momo may lead to a couple-three days more of sideways buoyancy. The RSI on the daily chart is overbot now so the next two days will show if the RSI has further oomph, or not, and if the much-needed Godot market correction, finally appears. VIX 13.20 is key.
Note Added 2:11 PM: TRIN 0.70. VIX 12.86. The 10-year yield is 1.95%. The dollar/yen is 102.20 (slight leak lower). Note that the parameters are relatively the same except for the dollar/yen with the slight leak lower. The SPX slips a couple handles. It is easy to see the direct market correlation with the BOJ easing. Dollar/yen (weaker yen) up = equities up and dollar/yen (stronger yen) down = equities down. Traders continue to run into XLI and XLB dubbing industrials and matedrials as the next sectors to pump higher. Tech is moving only in line with the market today. AAPL falls about seven bucks over the last one-half hour.
Note Added 2:27 PM: The market oddness continues. AAPL is now down to 442 dropping from 452, ten bucks, in 45 minutes time, -2.2%. TRIN 0.72. Dollar/yen 102.24. VIX 12.86. SPX 1647. Crude oil is down towards 94 but markets do not care about weaker commodities.
Note Added 2:51 PM: The dollar is near 83.6 hinting at a breakout higher with the two-leg bull pattern. Type 'USD' into the search box to bring up the 5/10/13 chart that shows this pattern for the dollar which would target 86. This would slap commodities silly. Lots of twists and turns occurring in the ongoing market drama. TRIN is 0.69 so say no more, bulls are fine. VIX stuck at 12.84. 10-year is 1.95%. Dollar/yen 102.20. SPX 1646. Markets slide sideways.
Note Added 3:55 PM: More melt-up. SPX new all-time high 1651.10. The 10-year yield is now running higher at 1.97%. Dollar/yen 102.25. TRIN uber low 0.64. VIX 12.77. Volume is below average as usual for an up day.
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